## INDIVIDUAL PREDICTION RISKGiven three input values (PSA, clinical stage, and Gleason score), we return estimated probability (likelihood) Key References: - Huang, Y., Isharwal, S., Haese A., chun, F. K. H., Makarov, D. V., Feng, Z., Han, M., Humphreys, E., Epstein, J. I., Partin, A. W., and Veltri, R. (2010) Prediction of patient-specific risk and percentile cohort risk of pathological stageoutcome using continuous prostate-specific antigen measurement, clinical stage, and biopsy Gleason score. BJUI 107, 1562-1569.
- Makarov DV, Trock BJ, Humphreys EB et al. Updated nomogram to predict pathologic stage of prostate cancer given prostate-specific antigen level, clinical stage, and biopsy Gleason score (Partin tables) based on cases from 2000 to 2005. Urology 2007; 69: 1095-101
The statistical R-program was prepared by Dr. Ying Huang, Fred Hutch Cancer Research Center (FHCRC). Greta Stoianovici (JHH Brady Urology Webmaster) transformed the R-program into the final formatted user- friendly nomogram. Dr. Robert Veltri organized the research study and assisted in the final design of the Partin Nomogram. |
## RISK DISTRIBUTION ESTIMATIONFor a given pathological stage (Organ confined, Extraprostatic extension, Seminal Vesicle Invasion, Lymph Node Invasion), we estimated the distribution of the risk (probability of being in this pathological stage) for patients in the entire JHH cohort (N=5730). , x coordinate is p
(0,1)=(0%,100%))vfrom the BJUI paper shows the risk quantile curve for each pathological stage and their 95% CI.
, together with its 95% confidence interval. For example, if we enter p as the probability of being p for an individual patient deter mined from the left side Table, then the output will show the proportion of subjects in the JHH cohort with smaller probability of beingOrgan Confined compared to this patient, in other words the placement of the patient's risk of being Organ Confined relative to others in the JHU population. Organ Confined |

percentile of the probability of being in this pathological stage in the entire JHH cohort and its 95% confidence interval. For example, if one select vth and a low Organ Confinedto get one outputv1=5% , and then select and a high Organ Confinedv2 to get another output. The two outputs will provide the 5th to 95th percentiles of the probability of being =95% in JHU population.Organ Confined |